A few weeks into last summer’s James Harden Trade Demand saga, Sixers president Daryl Morey went on the Anthony Gargano Show and revealed his long-term plan.
“What we’re attempting to do is have the best team possible this year, but also have the ability that, if we get into a next-season situation, to be a very unique team with the most cap room of a team that’s as good as us,” he said. “That’s a very unique situation to have.”
The Sixers now have the ability to create nearly $65 million in cap space this summer, which puts them in the neighborhood of the Detroit Pistons for the league lead. The Pistons certainly do not have an established MVP and a first-time All-Star as their top two players at the moment, so Morey is technically correct in that regard.
However, the Sixers aren’t the only playoff team with that type of flexibility this offseason. The Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder both aren’t far behind. And those two wouldn’t be the Sixers’ only threats for any stars that do become available.
Cole Anthony is Orlando’s highest-paid player under guaranteed contract next year at $12.9 million, as Jonathan Isaac’s $17.4 million contract is fully non-guaranteed until Jan. 10. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs both become extension-eligible this summer, and Paolo Banchero will follow next offseason, so the Magic won’t have cap space for long. But they have the ability to carve out more than $65 million in spending power this year.
The Thunder can’t quite meet those same heights. They can create up to $37.8 million in cap space at most, barring any trades. Still, they’re fresh off a Western Conference-leading 57-win season and an appearance in the conference semifinals. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams all under contract for at least the next two years, there’s no better time for them to strike than now.
Unlike the Sixers, who enter the offseason with virtually no one under contract, the Magic and Thunder could each offer young fliers to sweeten sign-and-trade offers as well. Josh Giddey’s stock took a beating this season, especially in the playoffs, but he could be a second-draft candidate who thrives in a more ball-dominant situation elsewhere. Cole Anthony, Jett Howard and Anthony Black should all have at least some modicum of trade value, too.
All things being equal, win-now veterans would likely prefer to join Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey than Banchero and Wagner, and OKC can’t carve out max cap space. That should still put the Sixers in the lead for Paul George, LeBron James or any other star that decides to leave their team in free agency this summer.
However, some of the Sixers’ top targets aren’t even guaranteed to become free agents. They could pick up the player options in their respective contracts, which would widen their list of potential destinations thanks to the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement.
Teams over the first apron—projected to be $178.7 million in 2024-25—can’t acquire players via sign-and-trade. Among others, the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns all project to be over either the first or second apron next year, which would take them out of the running for any sign-and-trades unless they shed a significant amount of salary.
Anyone who picks up their player option rather than becoming a free agent wouldn’t have to worry about that. They’d just be subject to the league’s normal trade rules, which are far less restrictive for teams below both aprons. Teams above either apron aren’t allowed to take back more salary in a trade than they send out, and teams above the second apron can’t aggregate contracts in trades either. Meanwhile, teams below both aprons can take back 125 percent of the salary they send out plus $250,000 as long as they send out at least $29 million in salary.
Take Paul George, for instance. The Sixers’ Plan A, per Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer. The Sixers and Magic could both afford to sign him to a max contract in free agency, although they wouldn’t be left with much cap space with which to round out their roster. Instead, George could pick up his player option and force his way to a specific destination via trade by threatening to leave the Clippers empty-handed in free agency if they didn’t comply.
That isn’t just baseless speculation, either. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst suggested that as a legitimate possibility during a recent appearance on the Pat McAfee Show.
All of this is to say: It is far more likely than not that the Sixers will whiff on signing either George or James in free agency. That doesn’t mean that they’ll be doomed or that the cap-space plan was a mistake from the start, but it means Morey and the Sixers front office might have to get creative.
“I think the actual big transactions this summer will be trades,” Windhorst added on McAfee. “Teams taking on salary in trades. Philly, potentially, if they don’t get Paul George, try to trade for guys into their cap space.”
Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine may be the more realistic high-end targets available to the Sixers this offseason. Whether they acquire either one will likely come down to asking price and offers from other teams. And if they strike out on all of their top options, Morey plans to sign players to shorter-term deals to maintain his flexibility for the next star that hits the market.
“The main mistake that could be made—that we won’t make—is if some of the better options don’t go our way,” Morey said at his end-of-season press conference. “Trade into our cap space, free agents, turn our draft picks into things. If all of those things don’t yield what we want, we are definitely not going to just sign for a lot of money some player who’s just an OK player. That’s not happening. Because that will be where we can’t continue to build a contender around Joel and Tyrese. In those scenarios, we’ll be doing shorter deals and then using our draft picks to set ourselves up for trades or set ourselves up for the next opportunity when it comes.”
That’s all well and good, but it’s clear that the Sixers plan to go star-hunting this summer. Morey telegraphed it during his end-of-season presser, and reporting since then has confirmed it.
”Philadelphia, according to league sources, views its opportunity this summer as something just shy of Golden State’s rare opening to sign Durant as a free agent without the league’s cap smoothing in 2016,” Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports reported in late May. “Teams with an MVP and an All-Star can’t typically afford to sign a maximum-salary third banana into room, while holding other avenues to spend and mid-level levers to pull, plus a cupboard of draft picks. The penalties baked into the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement are almost designed to dissuade that exact coalition.”
The Durant signing led the Warriors to win two straight championships and make it to a third straight Finals before Durant and Klay Thompson both suffered major leg injuries. The Sixers would be lucky to make a single Finals thanks to whatever they do this offseason. It’s clear that they’re aiming high, though, which means they’re setting themselves up for criticism and setting fans up for disappointment if they come up short.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.