Because the Sixers didn’t win a playoff series this year, Paul Reed’s future is now up in the air.
The offer sheet that Reed signed with the Utah Jazz last offseason stipulated that his $7.7 million salary for the 2024-25 season would only become guaranteed if his team advanced to the second round of the playoffs. Instead, the New York Knicks and Joel Embiid’s case of Bell’s palsy helped ensure Reed’s contract would remain non-guaranteed through Jan. 10.
The Sixers could waive Reed this offseason and be left without a dead cap hit, which they’d likely consider if they land a third max-contract player. Cutting him would be their path to still having meaningful cap space, along with the $8.0 million room mid-level exception once they were capped out. But they don’t have a nearby deadline by which they have to make a decision. They can see how the offseason plays out and proceed accordingly.
Since Reed’s full contract is non-guaranteed, he’d count as $0 in outgoing salary in trades unless the Sixers guaranteed some or all of his deal. But as long as they stay under the salary cap after a trade, they don’t need to worry about salary-matching rules. If anything, they could leave him non-guaranteed to sweeten a trade offer, allowing his next team to decide whether to keep him as depth, re-route him or waive him for cap relief.
The Sixers could also manipulate their offseason order of operations to take advantage of Reed’s contract in a creative way. If they keep him on their books and guarantee his full salary, they could flip him to acquire a much higher-paid player even if they’re over the cap at the time.
Under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, trades involving two teams below either apron have looser salary-matching rules than they once did. Teams that send between $7.25 million and $29 million in salary can take that amount of salary back plus $7.5 million. In other words, a team could trade a $7.5 million contract for a $15 million contract, or a $29 million contract for a $36.5 million contract.
With Reed set to earn $7.7 million next season, the Sixers could flip him for a player earning as much as $15.2 million as long as they stay below the first apron after the trade. They would then be hard-capped at the first apron for the remainder of the league year. Depending on how the rest of their offseason shakes out, that could be their best chance to round out their roster and add more depth.
For instance, let’s say they sign Paul George for his full max salary of $49.4 million. They could have as much as $16.7 million in cap space if they waive Reed and Ricky Council IV, trade the No. 16 overall pick, turn down their team option on Jeff Dowtin Jr. and renounce the rights to all of their free agents. They’ll likely wind up having less than that because they keep Reed, don’t trade the pick or re-sign some of their own players.
The Sixers could still have as much as $10.2 million in cap space along with the $8.0 million room MLE with a George max deal, Reed and Joel Embiid’s contracts and Tyrese Maxey’s cap hold on their books. Once they spent that cap space, they could flip Reed for a higher-paid player to upgrade that spot without having the cap space to fill it otherwise. They’d effectively be turning $7.7 million of cap space into $15.2 million, except they could only spend that on trades.
The Sixers would still be slightly out of range salary-wise on Lu Dort ($16.5 million), Deni Avdjia ($15.6 million) and P.J. Washington ($15.5 million) on the off-chance that any of them became available this offseason. However, they could squeeze Dorian Finney-Smith ($14.9 million), Luke Kennard ($14.8 million team option) or Naz Reid ($14.0 million) in with the salary-matching buffer on Reed’s contract. Larry Nance Jr. ($11.2 million), Gabe Vincent ($11.0 million) and Maxi Kleber ($11.0 million) could be slightly less expensive options.
In some respects, the Jazz did the Sixers a favor in the way they structured Reed’s contract. If he had a team or player option instead of a non-guaranteed salary, he’d have his contractual fate determined by late June either way. Instead, the Sixers can keep him on their books heading into July and pivot as needed from there.
If the Sixers land a third max-contract star, it wouldn’t be surprising if they just waive Reed outright. If they snag someone on a slightly smaller deal—Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell or Mikal Bridges, for instance—they might have enough cap space to round out their roster even with Reed’s contract still on their books. From there, they could evaluate their options at backup center without him and explore the trade market for him as well.
There’s no guarantee that the Sixers will waive Reed right as the offseason begins, though. In fact, it would behoove them to maintain their optionality with his contract for as long as possible, unless they needed his $7.7 million of cap space to sign a free agent.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.