Tag: 76ers-analysis

Sun rays or banner raise? LeBron’s dilemma in free agency sun,rays,or,banner,raise,lebron,s,dilemma,in,free,agency,liberty,ballers,front-page,76ers-analysis

On: By: admin


“I always believed that if we only have this one life, then let’s experiment with it.”

-David Bowie, told to TeleGraph, 1996

I think if you ask most fans, they’d still agree that Michael Jordan, possessing six championship rings, is The Greatest of All Time.

LeBron James has been squarely in the conversation ever since he won his fourth title with the Lakers in the bubble. And there are plenty of experts and fans who’d take The King over His Airness outright. But unless the NBA’s all-time season-scoring leader wins a fifth ring (which would tie the Akron native with names like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson), I’m not sure that he’ll convince enough people that he’s THE best to ever lace ’em up. One more ring would win over another wave. Two more might just put the whole thing to bed.

Hearing MJ talk over the years, one of El GOAT’s biggest regrets has been the 1997 Bulls management blowing up a dynasty, preparing for the future beyond MJ’s career, saving a few bucks. Jordan wanted a seventh, perhaps somehow knowing he’d one day be competing with players better than any he’d actually gotten the chance to face on a court.

So what’s LeBron’s mindset heading into year 22? One more ring in L.A. and a local might ask “so was he better than Shaq, Kareem, Kobe or Magic?” When you have 17 banners this is just what’s expected. But in Philly, where there haven’t been any banners since 1983? Now we’re talking about some true legend shit.

Sun rays, comfort, hope and a prayer

Sure, it might be comfortable for LeBron and his fam to stay in sunny L.A. Sure, LeBron probably has the confidence to convince himself his team with Anthony Davis (a true top-10ish talent when healthy) can win the title in 2025. Meh.

Sure, there’s the pipedream that maybe the Lakers’ 2024, 2029 and 2031 first-round picks along with several of Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent or Rui Hachimura might land a Jimmy Butler, a Donovan Mitchell or a Brandon Ingram.

But in his heart of kingly hearts, the 20-time All-Star probably does sense his career mortality looming. He probably does understand the Lakers have few paths to land the very big fish they’d need to help him catch Magic let alone Mike.

Alas, the 13-time All-NBA First Teamer could soon become a free agent. But the absence of rumors he might depart, combined with the Lakers already embarrassing offseason, already has fans wondering if he’s not as motivated to win as he once was.

Maybe LeBron can tune them out until the end of the month. But the speculation will only explode assuming he re-signs and begins the twilight of his career mired in mediocrity.

The Philadelphia 76ers (with a true top-six per Bleacher Report’s latest ranking talent when healthy) with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey (a newcomer to the top 20ish players) have about $65M in cap space.

If LeBron extends with the Lakers he can earn $164.3M. If he opts out and signs with the Sixers he’s looking at $157.5M. Pocket pennies for a dude worth about $1.2B.

And unlike L.A., few here are asking about the Sixers (set to drop a full max on Maxey) what BR’s Eric Pincus asked Tuesday: “are the Lakers just … cheap?

Philadelphia could give King a max, trade up to five first-round picks, still come up with another ~$15Mish in space, plus an $8M exception, all while signing a few of his preferred vets on min deals. They still wouldn’t be as top-heavy or expensive as Boston’s roster is built, they could offer ring-chasing vets a significant playing-role since they’d need cheap depth.

Joel, Maxey, LeBron, KCP, Caruso, Lowry, Batum, Drummond, Bronny, and maybe even Oubre or Hield anyone?

Per Newsweek, DraftKings is already slotting the Sixers in for the seventh-best (+1200, an implied 7.7% chance) odds to win the 2025 championship. LAL is given just the 10th-best odds (+2000, 4.7%), almost half of Philly’s.

Can you imagine how much higher the Sixers’ title odds would be if LeBron signed in Philly, not LA? Only Boston would have the edge, and with Kristaps Porzingis’ new injuries, I’m not sure it would be an edge at all.

Yahoo Sports’ Vincent Goodwill recently referred to the LakeShow as a “circus:”

“Some folks around the league feel J.J. Redick won’t want to be involved with this circus, and that he won’t want to be a second choice, but he wants to coach.”

ESPN’s Senior Writer Zach Lowe reminded us that the Lakers are a Play-In team almost every year.

Fans are reasonably trying to suss out how much LeBron cares about winning and the current coaching search.

Does King James just want his podcast buddy JJ Redick to coach? Did he secretly prefer UConn’s Dan Hurley or did Rob Pelinka go against James’ wishes again?

Was it all a leverage ploy by Hurley’s camp? Did the Lakers, known playfully as the league’s “mom and pop shop,” just get too cheap?

Why are we hearing “GM LeBron” — one of the most notoriously involved player/GMs ever — isn’t really involved now? Is his focus divided between hoops Cali business interests?

Hmmm….

The markets, media and fans all smell that LA circus popcorn popping, so why doesn’t James? Is he stubborn? Does he feel loyalty?

Kyrie Irving’s Finals run with the Mavs cannot be sitting well

Dallas Mavericks v Los Angeles Lakers

Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

If it’s loyalty, he shouldn’t let that sway him. How much resentment might James harbor against his current franchise’s front office for not topping the Dallas Mavericks offer for Irving when they reportedly had the opportunity?

By 2023, James called his former running mate “the most gifted player” in NBA history.

It’s been reported that the Lakers could have bested Dallas’ offer back in 2023. Per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst.

“LeBron wanted the Lakers to trade for Kyrie Irving when he was on the trade block, a couple of different times in ’22 and ’23….The Lakers actually could’ve created the cap space to beat the Mavericks offer last year, but they elected not to.”

As Sam Quinn put it for CBS Sports: “[Dallas’ offer] was an offer the Lakers could have topped, and the Nets demanded that they do so.”

Marc Stein, via Substack, laid out what Brooklyn asked for and L.A. wasn’t willing to offer: “They didn’t just want the two firsts and Russ [Westbrook]. They wanted [Austin] Reaves. They wanted [Max] Christie. They wanted Rui [Hachimura]….”

I know Irving carried more than a bit of baggage, but talent-wise, if you’re not prepared to cash in (two distant future picks, Rui and Reaves, while netting a dumping grounds for Westbrook’s hilariously bad contract) to capitalize on LeBron f—-g James’ prime, you’re doing something wrong.

James told coaching candidate JJ Redick on their co-hosted Mind the Game pod:

“There was nothing on the basketball floor that Kyrie couldn’t do…. I am so f—ing mad at the same time that I am not his running mate anymore.”

This reminds me… Tom Brady is considered the GOAT of the NFL, right?

NFL star Aaron Rodgers, after a rare down year in 2019, had to watch his Packers’ franchise draft his replacement over some premier offensive weapons in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers was furious and responded by bouncing back and winning back-to back NFL MVP’s in 2020 and 2021.

In the 2020 NFC Championship game, the eventual Super Bowl MVP Brady, threw three interceptions in seven plays, uncharacteristically imploding.

But Joel Embiid’s favorite team at the time, the Packers, simply couldn’t capitalize.

Stud receivers the Pack could have selected like Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman fell to other teams, as Rodgers’ future backup stood uselessly on the sidelines in the Conference Finals. GB lost by five points in an agonizingly winnable home game. Brady went on to win his eighth ring in a route the very next game.

The Bulls underestimated how much MJ had left in the tank. The Pack underestimated how much Rodgers had left in the tank. And the Lakers underestimated both LeBron and Kyrie. All left bullets that would have helped in the clip. All paid the price.

So LeBron shouldn’t feel any undying loyalty or obligation here to the Lakers. They’ve made their bed. He certainly doesn’t have to lie in it.

Yes, Anthony Davis makes an elite star-running mate. His 2020 title run was sensational. But like Embiid, he’s no exemplar of health. If both bigs are risky bets, at least Embiid is better when both are healthy.

Austin Reaves is good. But he’s certainly no Maxey.

The Sixers could in theory (since they’re not as cheap as L.A.) sign LeBron, then target two role players Bron won a chip with in KCP (an FA) and Bulls’ Alex Caruso (via trade). There would still likely be dollars and picks leftover to retain names like Kyle Lowry, Nico Batum, and even go shopping for cheap help like Andre Drummond or Kevon Looney, or a 2025 version of Oubre, looking to resurrect a career.

That may not be a super team, but it might be.

LeBron averaged over 26 points per 36 eleven times in his career. But during three of his four title-winning campaigns, the King averaged 26 pts/36 or less. Playing alongside Joel and Maxey might approximate some of that Big Three dynamic he enjoyed in Miami and Cleveland. He’d have to keep carrying the show in L.A.

Redick or whoever L.A. hires as coach might be good. But in his first season he certainly won’t be 2019 champ Nick Nurse. This Conference is no cakewalk. But Indiana making the East Finals reminds us how open it is. The West? I don’t know.

In some ways, it feels like LeBron is already #OneOfUs.

It isn’t difficult to sniff out where The King would have his most realistic chance to catch Kobe, if not Jordan.

Oh right, and all he’d have to do is say the word and Daryl Morey would probably draft his son Bronny James.

Can you even imagine a better storyline than this one:

James won his fifth championship, on his fourth team, delivering a title to every team he’s ever played for, in his 22nd NBA season, while sharing the floor with his soon-to-be-20-year-old son, Bronny James.

#GOAT shit.

If I had LeBron’s confidence, this type of hypothetical might even have me wondering if I could show up in Philly, F-k around and threepeat, topping Jordan’s six rings.

If LeBron wants another ring (as much as MJ would have) then he’d set sail for the Sixers. Rolling the dice on AD’s body holding up isn’t much — if any — safer than betting on Embiid’s.

If James is comfy going out on his own terms, not having to move, padding regular season all-time point stats, scrapping and clawing for the Play-In, then I suspect he’s better off staying put.

But if his own team wasn’t even willing to bet on his remaining window by mortgaging the future for Irving, wouldn’t it make some sense to find a significantly better team that truly believes in him?

Go rewatch “The Last Dance” and tell me MJ would have been content with four rings and some glorious sunshine during his final All-NBA worthy seasons.

One day, far away, someone new will come along and win five rings, and pundits will wonder if this heir apparent is better than James was. And Bron might just regret once opting for the comfy confines of Cali instead of using his remaining prowess to pursue glory alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and his son. Guess we’ll see how badly he wants to be the GOAT in a couple of weeks.

How the Sixers could get creative with Paul Reed’s contract this offseason how,the,sixers,could,get,creative,with,paul,reed,s,contract,this,offseason,liberty,ballers,front-page,76ers-analysis

On: By: admin


Because the Sixers didn’t win a playoff series this year, Paul Reed’s future is now up in the air.

The offer sheet that Reed signed with the Utah Jazz last offseason stipulated that his $7.7 million salary for the 2024-25 season would only become guaranteed if his team advanced to the second round of the playoffs. Instead, the New York Knicks and Joel Embiid’s case of Bell’s palsy helped ensure Reed’s contract would remain non-guaranteed through Jan. 10.

The Sixers could waive Reed this offseason and be left without a dead cap hit, which they’d likely consider if they land a third max-contract player. Cutting him would be their path to still having meaningful cap space, along with the $8.0 million room mid-level exception once they were capped out. But they don’t have a nearby deadline by which they have to make a decision. They can see how the offseason plays out and proceed accordingly.

Since Reed’s full contract is non-guaranteed, he’d count as $0 in outgoing salary in trades unless the Sixers guaranteed some or all of his deal. But as long as they stay under the salary cap after a trade, they don’t need to worry about salary-matching rules. If anything, they could leave him non-guaranteed to sweeten a trade offer, allowing his next team to decide whether to keep him as depth, re-route him or waive him for cap relief.

The Sixers could also manipulate their offseason order of operations to take advantage of Reed’s contract in a creative way. If they keep him on their books and guarantee his full salary, they could flip him to acquire a much higher-paid player even if they’re over the cap at the time.

Under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, trades involving two teams below either apron have looser salary-matching rules than they once did. Teams that send between $7.25 million and $29 million in salary can take that amount of salary back plus $7.5 million. In other words, a team could trade a $7.5 million contract for a $15 million contract, or a $29 million contract for a $36.5 million contract.

With Reed set to earn $7.7 million next season, the Sixers could flip him for a player earning as much as $15.2 million as long as they stay below the first apron after the trade. They would then be hard-capped at the first apron for the remainder of the league year. Depending on how the rest of their offseason shakes out, that could be their best chance to round out their roster and add more depth.

For instance, let’s say they sign Paul George for his full max salary of $49.4 million. They could have as much as $16.7 million in cap space if they waive Reed and Ricky Council IV, trade the No. 16 overall pick, turn down their team option on Jeff Dowtin Jr. and renounce the rights to all of their free agents. They’ll likely wind up having less than that because they keep Reed, don’t trade the pick or re-sign some of their own players.

The Sixers could still have as much as $10.2 million in cap space along with the $8.0 million room MLE with a George max deal, Reed and Joel Embiid’s contracts and Tyrese Maxey’s cap hold on their books. Once they spent that cap space, they could flip Reed for a higher-paid player to upgrade that spot without having the cap space to fill it otherwise. They’d effectively be turning $7.7 million of cap space into $15.2 million, except they could only spend that on trades.

The Sixers would still be slightly out of range salary-wise on Lu Dort ($16.5 million), Deni Avdjia ($15.6 million) and P.J. Washington ($15.5 million) on the off-chance that any of them became available this offseason. However, they could squeeze Dorian Finney-Smith ($14.9 million), Luke Kennard ($14.8 million team option) or Naz Reid ($14.0 million) in with the salary-matching buffer on Reed’s contract. Larry Nance Jr. ($11.2 million), Gabe Vincent ($11.0 million) and Maxi Kleber ($11.0 million) could be slightly less expensive options.

In some respects, the Jazz did the Sixers a favor in the way they structured Reed’s contract. If he had a team or player option instead of a non-guaranteed salary, he’d have his contractual fate determined by late June either way. Instead, the Sixers can keep him on their books heading into July and pivot as needed from there.

If the Sixers land a third max-contract star, it wouldn’t be surprising if they just waive Reed outright. If they snag someone on a slightly smaller deal—Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell or Mikal Bridges, for instance—they might have enough cap space to round out their roster even with Reed’s contract still on their books. From there, they could evaluate their options at backup center without him and explore the trade market for him as well.

There’s no guarantee that the Sixers will waive Reed right as the offseason begins, though. In fact, it would behoove them to maintain their optionality with his contract for as long as possible, unless they needed his $7.7 million of cap space to sign a free agent.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.